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Exports strong, but imports plunge
Aggregated Source: Shanghai Daily: Business

CHINA'S exports continued to grow strongly in February while imports plunged due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the General Administration of Customs said yesterday.

Exports gained 21.8 percent over a year earlier to US$139.4 billion last month, lower than January's 25 percent surge but far exceeding the 15 percent figure many analysts had expected.

Imports fell 15.2 percent to US$124.1 billion, in sharp contrast to January's 28.8 percent increase, and much lower than expected.

The Customs said the holiday break, which was in January last year, accounted for the huge volatility in imports.

For a clearer picture, analysts suggest looking at data for January and February as a whole, when exports climbed 23.6 percent and imports rose 5 percent.

"It is obvious that China's external trade has picked up momentum since the fourth quarter of 2012," said Zhou Hao, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. "In our view, it is time for China to tilt its trade policy to encourage imports while gradually lowering subsidies on exports to reduce the large trade surplus that could bring about renewed pressure on a stronger yuan."

China's trade surplus was US$15.3 billion in February and US$44.2 billion when January was added, compared to the deficit of US$4.8 billion in the first two months of 2012.

Chang Jian, an economist at Barclays, said China's trade growth continued to throw up surprises but caution was needed with regard to exports.

At the East China Fair, the earliest and largest regional trade fair which ended on Tuesday in Shanghai, orders clinched fell nearly 10 percent on an annual basis, with the number of overseas visitors dropping 5.2 percent - a bad sign for this year's trade.

Chang also said import growth might be not as weak as suggested by the 15.2 percent drop and a modest domestic recovery, sustained by growing domestic demand, was still under way.

Commerce Minister Chen Deming said yesterday that China needed to lower its logistic costs as well as increase export credit insurance to improve trade performance and make this year's trade growth target of 8 percent attainable.

China's trade grew 6.2 percent in 2012, missing last year's 10 percent.

Zhang Zhiwei, a Nomura economist who had forecast a contraction in February's exports, said traders might have overstated their exports and understated their imports in a bid to circumvent capital controls and move more funds into China to cash in on the rebounding equity and property markets.

China's business with major trading partners generally increased in the first two months. Shipments with the European Union, China's biggest trading partner, accelerated 3.2 percent in the January-February period. Trade with the United States climbed 14.8 percent and with ASEAN countries the growth rate surged to 22 percent.

However, China's trade with Japan fell 8.2 percent.

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Copyright Shanghai Daily: Business