CHINA'S inflation may rebound in April while other economic indicators are likely to accelerate a bit from the lows a month earlier, analysts predicted before the data are released this week.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may return to a growth of 2.5 percent in April, Industrial Bank's chief economist Lu Zhengwei said. His projection was higher than the market average of 2.2 percent.
In March, China's inflation eased to 2.1 percent from February's 10-month high of 3.2 percent, leaving more space for policymakers to maneuver.
"But the government is taking no action to roll out new policies to stimulate the economy," Lu said. "It is probably because the authorities have a better view of current economic conditions.
Therefore, April's data are very crucial."
Li Maoyu, an analyst at Changjiang Securities Co, said China's economic data may surprise the market on the upside because the country's economy would get back in gear after a long Spring Festival holiday.
"April is a month that traditionally reports positive growth," Li said. "Everything is restored as business returns to normal."
However, data released last week showed China's manufacturing and service sectors both slowed down in April.
The Purchasing Managers' Index, the gauge of operating conditions of factories, fell to 50.6 last month from March's 50.9. The non-manufacturing PMI, which measures vitality of service companies, also lost 1.1 points from a month earlier to 54.5 in April.
Tang Jianwei, an economist at Bank of Communications, said there are a lot of uncertainties in China's economy, especially after the bird flu outbreak and Sichuan earthquake.
Xinhua news agency reported that worries over the bird flu are costing at least 1 billion yuan (US$161.3 million) a day nationwide. It is still hard to calculate its impact on the poultry industry.
China's trade may remain solid in April, said Lu of Industrial Bank, predicting exports to accelerate 13.5 percent and imports to surge 25 percent.
Other economic indicators, such as industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, may show mild improvement, Lu said.